N. Korea’s “Threat”
Posted October 4, 2006 on 5:48 pm | In the category Uncategorized | by JeffThis just in from our Oceania Bureau Chief who watches Asia, Australia and Oceania for us. We asked for his thoughts on what is going on in North Korea; are they continuing to try to get Bush to negotiate one-on-one?
“I think they want to indirectly pressure the US by scaring its “allies” and want to give China a reason/need to return to the US with pressure for 1 on 1 talks. But I see the test threat as sort of reassuring in that they wouldn’t say they were going to test if they could test and were planning to do so imminently. Pakistan and India have not tested since the late 90’s. I think they can’t yet test but are feeling hungry going into winter and desperate as Iraq, Darfur, Iran and Mid-east seem to be the world’s focus. It isn’t beyond Kim Jong Il — the Michael Jackson of geopolitics– to act up now just to rain on S. Korea’s UN Sect.Gen parade. That really may play into the timing. Hell, they chose the 4th of July to shoot 6 missiles over Japan. Director Kim watches the calendar and the camera.”
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Just to be clear, the Indian and Pakistani precedents were to test without forewarning or even contemporary explanation. Those cases suggest that if you can test and plan to test you don\’t court geopolitical interdiction of your intention by announcing an imminent test. That N.Korea is breaking with this precedent opens the possible interpretation that Kim is not yet in a position to test. The issue isn\’t so much one of when India and Pakistan tested,or last tested, as that they let the action speak for itself. A mushroom cloud is definitively convincing. If you demonstrate a capability it isn\’t necessary to assert you have the capability. On the other hand claiming the capability without demonstrating it does not foreclose the existence of the capability. That\’s why Kim\’s threat can\’t be comfortably dismissed.
Comment by kiwi — October 4, 2006 #
Understood - thanks for the clarification. Certainly you are right that the threat cannot be dismissed, and you make an excellent point on the difference between announcing that you will test - and simply going ahead and doing it…..
Now I am interested in exploring that whole issue of whether the U.S. has missed an opportunity to negotiate with (and possibly buy off) the North Koreans. This is not something the Bush administration is comfortable doing (the manhood thing) but having pissed away much of our strength in the Iraq fiasco and ignored the tougher situation in North Korea we are running out of resonable choices. Please God oh please, do not ask Kissinger for advice….
Comment by Jeff — October 4, 2006 #