Politics and Press

The interaction of the press and politics; public diplomacy, and daily absurdities.

Kiwi

The More Climate Changes the More We’re Screwed

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Among the decisions at last months EU summit two were related. Related in that way that allows one to see between the lines. Allows one to read the political sub-text that is usually meant to be obscured.

The big publicized decision was the EU ordering member states to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2020. This decision also required specific methods to reach that mandate. (Tho some of the new members grumped — saying they had hoped to leave micro-managed state planning behind when they escaped the USSR— maybe climate change required a bit of extra discipline.) Anyway,among the specific steps to be taken is forced replacement in each nation of a percentage of carbon-intensive light bulbs with more eco-friendly (and expensive) ones.

Well. okay.

But then came the–less publicized– related decision. A 100% tariff on imports of these
eco-friendly bulbs was extended to 2020. Seimens, the German manufacturer has a virtual lock on the EU market. It can pocket the excess profit europeans are forced by law to fork up.

So the sub-text comes into focus.

Eco-terrified Europeans are demanding climate change action. EU authorities are giving it to them. So to speak. Climate change policy comes with baggage europeans aren’t asking for. The baggage from the left is increased central control of european local decisions. The baggage from the right is increased protection of corporate profits.

The capitalists and the authoritarians are immediate big winners. And, hey, maybe there’ll actually be some climate change benefit by 2020. European’s will have to wait to see on that one. Mean time they pay up and shut up.

If this were just a one-off thing confined to the EU it wouldn’t be worth blogging. But maybe there is a universal theme? A sorta cynical global political manipulation of popular terror over climate change? A charade in which the left and right seem to fight each other but you and I are the only ones getting bruises?

In the US there is a worrying coalescence that looks remarkably similar. The Washington Post  today reports on a climate change debate between Kerry and Gingrich that was billed as a “smackdown fight” but degenerated into a love-in. Trees were being hugged by left and right alike.

So what? Nothing, really. Except that as voters we want to be careful what we ask for.

Europeans asked for action on climate change. What they’re getting is poorer and less autonomous.

25% of the Bush Presidency is Still to Come.

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Reality hasn’t changed just because the TV camera is now focused on the 2008 Presidential election. Bush is still in charge and Congress is still ineffectual.

When the Democrats won their Congressional majority a perception took root. Somehow folk started thinking that things had changed. In fact the only change was one of possibilities.

It became possible that one branch of government might restrain another. Possibilities don’t become realities by virtue of perception. Regardless of where the TV camera points.

Bush is unrestrained. One completely unchained –though perceptively lame– duck. Everyday he waddles toward a strike on Iran. With every quack he makes his intention clear.

He is not playing out the clock. He’s not idly watching “Congressional maneuvering.” He’s not reacting to events. He isn’t dishing dirt in Hollywood with fag hag columnists. Not scoring points or “positioning his candidate” for an election that is twenty-one months away.

Bush is acting. He’s creating the future in which that election will be held. He’s telling anybody who will listen that he’s not gonna tolerate an Iranian nuclear bomb.

He’s as serious as death.

Either he’s not the guy who has been President for the past six years or he is going to strike Iran. He’s not going to retire and hope his successor acts.

He’s going to push ’til he draws a foul or he’s going to do it without provocation.

But what he’s not going to do is go quietly.

He’s not going to blow off a quarter of his Presidency. He’s going to create the reality with which the next Presidency will have to contend.

America is dying

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Today’s NY Times reports the Fed Reserve chairman warned Congress that projected growth in entitlements under Soc. Sec. and medicaid threaten the economy. This is not news, but never-mind. Anyway, what I want to rant about is contained in this paragraph on Congressional reaction to Bernanke :

“His comments also dovetailed with statements by the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., favoring efforts to curb the cost of entitlements this year, despite skepticism among some lawmakers that painful steps to deal with the problem cannot be taken two years before a presidential election.”

According to that observation–which I think is as honest as it is damning– America is un-govrernable 50% of the time. (Maybe more, as opponents of any major controversial effort know they can defeat it merely by delaying initiative for the first half of a presidential term.) America isn’t unmanageable–it continues its headless running around without direction—but it isn’t governing itself.

That to me is the headline. “America Out of Control Half the Time” Or that would be the headline if it were news to anybody. That you can’t do anything—like, say, withdraw from Iraq—within 2 years of a presidential election is pretty much accepted as fact by press, public, and obviously politicians. So it isn’t a headline. It isn’t news. Just like it isn’t news that social security is broke. That is accepted reality right along with the accepted reality that half the time the country simply can’t make big decisions. We’re old and tired. And sick.

America has political sclerosis. The vessels feeding and healing it are all plugged up with the plaque of money, and celebrity and mass stupidity. Maybe we lost our will? What do you call it when there is wide recognition that something needs to be done–get out of Iraq or secure SS–coupled with wide acceptance that nothing will be done?

Watching the oil gauge

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Crude prices dropped 4% in the hours after Bush announced that US ground forces would counter the Shiite militias and the US Navy would be stationing an additional carrier battle group off Iran (Surging total force numbers way beyond 20K or don’t sailors count?).

Given that the war premium in the oil price could be expected to escalate with the war’s escalation, a price REDUCTION might seem puzzling. Or not. It looks as if the Saudis are flooding the market to limit Tehran’s revenues. Saudi Sunnis want to contain Persian Shiites and destabilize Iran’s domestic politics. Or did the Saudis opened the oil spigot merely as a thank-you gesture for Bush’s tilt towards the Iraqi Sunnis?

Are we hearing the opening economic shots in a regional sectarian war? A war we are supposedly “surging” to forestall?

Baffled by Silence

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Where is the outrage?

Why doesn’t Darfur bring activists to the streets? Why doesn’t China enabling oppression inspire a popular reaction? Why is the UN’s impotence ignored?

In Myanmar, according to the NY Times, there is yet another immediate case of China’s support of cruelty and corruption :

“…attempts at outside pressure to prod the government to address its people’s needs and curb abuses have faltered, in large part because China’s thirst for resources has undermined nearly a decade of American economic sanctions.”
The Chinese are happy to supply the arms Myanmar needs to oppress its people in return for access to Myanmar’s natural gas.

“What can we do about it?” said a well educated man here, when asked about the plans to sell the gas abroad in the face of the deprivation at home. “What good would it do to protest, what would we get?” People were too afraid of the 400,000-member strong army supplied by China, Russia and Ukraine to complain, he said.

Perhaps these people could take hope from the UN. Unfortunately the Times story isn’t encouraging on that :

“The United Nations under secretary general, Ibrahim Gambari, met with the junta leader, Gen. Than Shwe, on Nov. 11 in Myanmar and urged the government to mend its ways on forced labor and political prisoners. The meeting ended inconclusively, United Nations officials said.”

The US intends to push for further sanctions in next week’s Security Council meeting. The US is trying to gather support for sanctions at this weekend’s meeting in Viet Nam.

Let’s do the obligatory : it is Bush’s fault. Yes, Bush is inept in Viet Nam. He is off message. Instead of drawing attention to the Myanmar peoples’ plight he draws attention to his stupidity by making an inane comment comparing the Viet Nam and Iraq wars.

So next week the Security Council will talk about a US resolution to increase pressure on the Myanmar regime and China will assure that nothing real happens.

OK. Such are the ways of the world. But where are the activists? Where is the outrage? The activist community in the past has supported efforts to force Myanmar’s release of dissident San Suu Kyi so maybe there’s hope? Will we see some pickets at the Chinese Embassy on Connecticut Ave? Probably not.

Bush has used up our outrage. It is in deed Bush’s fault. So in 2 years it will all change for the better. When Bush is gone Darfur and Myanmar will be safe from the Chinese energy-for-opression foreign policy. Thank Dog for that.

Sudan To Choose Who “Intervenes” in Their Crimes?

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Roll over George Orwell, newspeak has reached a new high.

Earlier today the Chinese government said that it was up to the Sudanese if the UN would be permitted to prevent the Sudanese government from prosecuting its genocide in Darfur. If that weren’t sufficiently perverse, the Chinese added that Beijing promised to use its seat on the UN security council to “continuously play a constructive roll” in Darfur.

Now the Sudanese are so confident of their oil-for-genocide pact with the Chinese that they have just suggested negotiations begin for “…all financial, material, logistic or technical assistance from the UN in order to strengthen the AU mission in Darfur.”

Confused? Well, don’t be. The Organization of African Unity mission is unlikely to do anything to interdict the Sudanese government so why not make them comfortable? The Sudanese Foreign Minister has made it clear that “there should be no talk about a mixed [UN/AU] force”.

He also wants to discuss the AU missions size and composition. There is no agreement on anything until he’s satisfied. He told the BBC there would be no UN troops.

To drive home the point the Sudanese Defense Minister, Abdel Rahim Mohamed Hussein, said Darfur would become an “invaders’ graveyard” if a UN peacekeeping force was sent there.

Well, surely the UN won’t tolerate being instructed by the very government it seeks to constrain? Yeah, right. It is a good bet that the UN will do the rolling over in this situation. They will try to put a good PR face on this and kick the can a further few months down the road.

Think not? Well, the UN’s head-dude-on-the-scene is no longer on the scene : “UN humanitarian chief Jan Egeland has cut short his trip to Darfur after Sudan’s government told him it would be too dangerous for him to travel outside the region’s major towns.” according to the BBC.

And in a few months the death toll will be up from the current 200,000-plus and the refugee count will be more than the present 3,000,000-plus.

And the new UN Secretary General will announce that he is getting up to speed on what’s happening in Darfur.

Orwellian or what?

UN : No Stronger than its Weakest Link

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For the last 36 hours the UN Secretary General has been urging a “hybrid force” of African Unity and Blue Helmut troops be cautiously deployed in Darfur. This measured 3-step intervention was designed to end the Sudan government’s use of Islamist Arab janjaweed murderers as it slaughters the black muslims in Darfur and– more recently—in Chad.

This blog has taken an interest in the conflict and was hoping to applaud the Security Council’s endorsement of this too-modest but long sought relief from Darfur’s suffering. There are many who have been skeptical of China’s role in the Sudan and indeed in the entire African continent. Worry has been expressed that China would continue its refusal to permit any interference with the Sudanese –who supply China with oil.

A few hours ago the Chinese confirmed that once again it would frustrate the UN with impunity. The story is here. Read it and weep for the hapless peoples of Africa. In the words of the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson :

“The deployment of UN peacekeepers in Darfur should first have the consent of the Sudanese government.”

Of course the Sudanese government had already said that it would permit no such deployment. The Chinese are protecting their oil contracts and reminding the world that:

“As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China will continuously play a constructive role in solving the Darfur issue. ”

The world is at risk when the UN pretends to play a protectorate role but is neutered by its self-dealing impudence. The wrath of citizen activists– so recently unleashed on other member states who frustrate the UN’s peaceful intentions– should once again be inflamed and then directed at the Chinese who are behind the second African genocide in a dozen years.

That isn’t any more likely than that the UN–in its current form– will be a meaningful force for world security. Good luck Darfur. Good luck to us all.

China’s “Public Diplomacy” in China

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Chinese – Sudanese oil, arms, and political protection deals are sustaining the 2nd African genocide of our generation. But that is just the starting point. China has been using the Sudan as a test bed, proving and improving the beta version of mass market neo-colonialism.

It is a terrific success. No real detractors. The UN rolled over and played as dead as a Darfur baby trampled under janjaweed hooves. Oh, the US muttered a bit but then decided best not to piss off their Chinese bankers. All is going as the Chinese had hoped and now its time to go into production with a continent-wide roll out. If you liked Darfur get ready Angola. Heads up DR Congo. The good times they are just startin’ ta roll.

Click here for the story as reported in today’s NY TIMES:

More than 80% of African heads of state are lining up in Beijing to cut their own deals on the Sudanese pattern. They will get the small arms they need to oppress their domestic populations and they’ll get the buy off cash to pass around amongst themselves and argue over in civil gang fights. China will get the oil iron and cotton it needs and— as a bonus– a market for the cheaper trinkets of Chinese low paid labour. But wait, there’s more. If the Africans sign up now there is a premium to be had in the UN market place. It is a fantastic market–the UN. A place where- to quote Catch 22’s Milo Minderbinder,–everybody has a share. Well, every government has a share. Well a vote, then. What those governments do to their populations is up to them. China will see to that.

Mutual UN backscratching under the ultimate protection of China’s Security Counsel seat/veto. What a deal. Easy money for corrupt governments in exchange for rights to rape environments and plunder raw materials. It is a sweet one.

Nobody gonna mess with this.

Hey,where the fuck’s Bob Geldolf?

Genocide for Oil

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A serious diplomat, Jan Pronk, seeing the genocide around him— and knowing history will rightly convict him of facilitating genocide—has done the minimum and spoken out about the Sudanese government’s disintegration, and the desperation that will lead to a renewed wave of janjaweed “cleansing attacks” on the minority populace.

The UN, and most particularly Kofi Annan knows this is genocide because we have experienced an earlier one nearby.

But the UN cannot even give the pogrom its proper name–genocide–because of Chinese support for their Sudanese oil suppliers. The Sudanese are now trying to distract the world community with assertions that the UN is being misled by a Jewish conspiracy.

Claims against Jews and their “American toadies” are now the cover for this new genocide. (See this Sudan Tribune piece)

The UN is failing to stop the second African genocide in a generation and now the perpetrators and their enablers are blaming those who would stop them as puppets of a Zionist plot. Americans might dismiss such an outrageous claim, but it is one that is allowed to take root in much of the rest of the world.

We can lament that American credibility is so diminished and its moral authority so wasted that this is allowed to happen. But that does not exempt Americans from doing at least as much as Jan Pronk has done to bring pressure on the world to intervene. This is an issue on which President Bush has spoken forthrightly. See his statement on the White House website.