Exactly twenty-five years ago today a rather remote nuclear reactor in Chernobyl, Ukraine – at that time still in the Soviet Union – exploded and sent a deadly dose of radioactivity into the atmosphere where it eventually spread out over the skies of neighbouring Belarus, in particular, but soon over much of northern and central Europe as well. At first the Soviet government denied that there was a serious problem and sent in men on suicide missions with shovels and fire hoses to supposedly cover up a potential danger which in fact was already completely out of the bottle. The results are now there for all to contemplate. One third (!) of the soil of Belarus is contaminated, a substantial zone around Chernobyl is uninhabitable and will remain so for centuries, and scores of thousands have died.
And now in far-of and technologically sophisticated Japan, something similar is going on. The government greatly understated the danger, courageous men were sent in, certainly better protected than the fireman of Chernobyl but still in mortal danger, but the evil genie was already out of the bottle, the ocean itself is contaminated and 80,000 people have been evacuated from their homes. There is no guarantee that they will ever be allowed to return. And this time there has been some reflection on what it means since it is very unlikely that the next catastrophe will need another twenty-five years. Germany has shut down, at least temporarily, its oldest reactors and is considering a future without nuclear power, with no easy solution once one has become addicted to it. But resource-poor France, and increasingly India and China, have made clear that they are putting all their energy bets on nuclear power and even poor Belarus is building its first nuclear reactor right on the Lithuanian, and EU, border. So much for learning from the past.
German elections – the nuclear power opponents win a surprising victory
The nuclear disaster in Japan will no doubt have a negative ripple effect on the popularity of the nuclear power industry throughout the world – at least one would hope so as the consequences of a nuclear meltdown begin to hit home – and the first plebiscites on the topic in regional elections in southwest Germany have delivered completely unexpected results. In Baden-Württemberg, where the Conservative CDU party has ruled for almost 60 years, the Green Party, which for 30 years has attacked nuclear power programmes from a gradually-growing minority position, will apparently deliver the next premier, as the Greens received, by a very slight margin over the social Democrats, the most votes with 24%. And in neighbouring Rheinland-Pfalz the Greens will have gained a crucial position to rule in coalition with the Social Democrats. There is no doubt that the impulse for this amazing result is German uneasiness with the proposed expansion of nuclear power plants in view of the catastrophe in technologically-proficient Japan.
There is also no doubt about who the big losers are in this. Angela Merkel’s ruling CDU/CSU government has been punished for waffling on the topic of nuclear energy, and its weak coalition party, the FDP, lost half its votes in the elections and fell below the 5% level, which gets you into parliament, in one of them. For the FDP, which traditionally supplies the Foreign Minister when in coalition, it could be a fatal blow. For the CDU/CSU it is a rude wake-up call as analysts have determined that many thousands of voters who normally vote conservative switched to the Greens as a protest on federal nuclear power policy. It seems that a stance that was once the home territory of an offbeat protest party finds a great deal of support among conservatively-minded Germans. After all, the potential spread of radiation in Japan pays no attention to political interests. It looks like it may make everybody’s land uninhabitable for a long time in a wide area around the crippled reactors.
Where you want to live – – the Commonwealth by Jove
The British magazine The Economist has come out with its annual ranking of most livable cities, and the results, controversial though they may be in the particulars, do indicate in their overall findings a remapping of the desired urban world which would have seemed frivolous only a decade ago. For the fifth straight year, Vancouver is ranked first, which is no surprise. But that 3 of the first 5 cities are in Canada – Toronto (4) and Calgary (5) join Vancouver in this group – and that 7 of the first 10 – Melbourne (2) , Sydney (7), Perth (8), Adelaide (9) and Auckland (10)- are from the British Commonwealth must give the Brits a rare sense of pride in the old colonial empire and the feeling that it did bear some fruit. After all, London itself is only ranked in the mid 50s, just after New York, and only 2 European cities – Vienna (3) and Helsinki (6) make the top ten. In its analysis of this surprising shifting pattern of livability, the Economist find a common denominator: the most livable cities are mid-sized and in wealthy countries with a low population density – Canada and Australia -and are splendidly situated, usually on the coast.
Belgium breaks the world record
Little Belgium, host of the parliament of big Europe, has set a new world record that may be hard to equal in the foreseeable future. For 250 days it has continued to muddle through without a functioning government. For many decades the mystery has been why the country exists at all since, as Der Spiegel so delicately put it, only three things have held it together: the national football team, beer and the king. And now the football team is third-class, the beer is a globalized brew and the king, like all European kings and/or queens, is quaintly irrelevant. So why should the French-speaking Walloons and the Dutch-speaking Flems be forced into a union that neither of them seems to want?
Nobody seems to know the answer to that, and the proof of dysfunctionality is that democracy has led to a parliament full of parties so antagonistic to each other, largely on linguistic grounds, that no coalition government can be formed or even imagined these days. Bilingual countries like Canada should be taking notes furiously in an attempt to avoid a similar fate. But wait, something extraordinary seems to be happening in Belgium. Without a government, things are running much more smoothly that it did with a government. It turns out that civil servants carry out the necessary work very well without bellowing politicians to bother them.
Back to the Past – Mutiny on the sailing ship
German Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg is suddenly in big trouble because of a military incident that recalls the nineteenth rather than the twenty-first century. In early November, 2010, the German military sailing ship Gorch Foch, one of the largest and most beautiful sailing ships in operation, that is now used to train German naval cadets in the skills of nineteenth century seamen, anchored in a Brazilian port. Cadets were ordered up into the rigging to reef the sails and one of them, a 25 year old female officer candidate who had arrived on board two days before, fell to her death. When the captain ordered other cadets to climb up, some refused, an act of mutiny by naval military code, and the entire crew was flown back to germany and replaced by professionals for the return trip. It is a scene out of a work like Melville’s Billy Budd.
Reports that followed did not mention the breakdown of order on the ship. In January the true story emerged through unofficial channels, and only then did the Defence Minister act by removing the captain from command. While he denies having acted only after coming under media pressure, Guttenberg, probably the most promising younger politician to be considered as a Chancellor candidate as Merkel’s tenure seems to be running down, may well be the first post-modern head-of-state candidate to be removed from his potential command because of dangerous winds blowing out of the supposedly long-forgotten past. One thing all agree on: climbing up into the rigging – six people have fallen to their deaths from the rigging since the Gorch Fock first set sail – is an unnecessary task for a modern naval officer.
Ten for the New Year – a quiz
A quiz for 2011;
Which of the following stories were covered in the January 14 issue of Globe and Mail and which were gleaned from Tom Lehrer’s blog?
1. China has made clear its willingness to save key European nations from looming bankruptcy.
2. Brussels, the bureaucratic hub of the European Union, will soon be a hub without a country.
3. The Canadian Broadcast Standards Council has banned Dire Straits’ 25 year old hit song Money for Nothing from Canadian air waves because it includes the word “faggot” even though this is spoken in the text by an obvious bigot, and generally understood to be satire
4. A former vice-presentential candidate in the United States said that commentators who registered their disapproval of the shooting of a Jewish congresswoman were engaged in a “blood libel” campaign.
5. Supporters of the vice-presidential candidate defended her on the grounds that she literally didn’t know what she was talking about.
6. 61 year-old Sandra Finley, head of the Albert Green Party, faces jail time after having been found guilty of refusing to fill out a long-form Canadian census. The ruling Conservative Party also opposes this census.
7. 69 year old retiree Barb Copp has had her driver’s licence revoked after her doctor reported to the Ontario government that she had had elevated alcohol levels in her liver after she attending a wake. Ms. Copp had no previous flaws on her driving record and had taken a taxi to and from the wake.
8. Mr. Wally Balloo had his driver’s licence revoked when Vancouver.
police reported that he had used improper diction in a radio report criticizing police.
9. Poland announced that it had removed visa restrictions for all citizens of Belarus except the government leaders.
10. Quebec securité confiscated the pots and pans in 55-year old Mary Magoon’s kitchen after she had been denounced for using cookery made in Newfoundland.
Wikileaks, apologies and spies
In the last episode created by Henning Mankell for the iconic sleuth of the post-Soviet world, Kurt Wallander is sent out on his most surprising trail of discovery.. (No, we won’t tell you how we know there will be no sequels this time – learn to read Swedish or be patient and wait for the translation.) In the complicated unravelling of the plot behind the plot that culminated in the grounding of a Soviet submarine right in front of Sweden’s supposedly most secure naval base (It was discovered by a mink farmer out for a walk), the presumed Russian spy turns out to have been a spy for the United States. Anyone who has been in Sweden’s top-secret military information office (my brother and I walked in by mistake while looking for a washroom) will have noticed that on the top-secret maps pinned to the walls, all the theoretical invasion threats were indicated by arrows coming from the east. Neutral, non-Nato Sweden apparently had no fears about threats from the west or the south.
So what kind of fantasy trip was Mankell on with this story of an American threat? Nutty Swedish paranoia, no doubt, the US didn’t spy on its supposed allies, not to mention its real NATO allies like the dastardly Russians would be expected to do, would they? Well, recent events in the Foreign Affairs office of Germany’s hapless foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle suggest the opposite. Wikileaks has provided ample reason for the governments of supposedly friendly nations to raise alarm flags on all fronts with regard to the arrogance of leaders of a country that is not exactly prospering at the moment. The German-speaking countries – Germany, Switzerland and Austria – are not going to forget what these gunslingers said to each other about them though they will deny being overly offended. And the US ambassador to Germany, Philip Murphy, will have to be recalled for the actions of his office overstep the line of what is acceptable for an embassy enjoying the privilege of a foreign government on somebody else’s turf. For, as is now known, the US embassy was receiving information from in-camera meetings of the German Foreign Office through an informant who was sitting at the table, or rather behind it, listening carefully and taking notes that he then passed on to someone at the US Embassy. The German government seems to be avoiding calling the informer, Westerwelle’s chief of staff Helmut Metzner a spy (“Spion”), preferring “Informer” (Informant) because they are still not certain who it was who put him up to this, or if he was, rather incredibly, simply acting on his own. Whatever the truth on that turns out to be, the Germans will certainly never again say a word in confidence to US ambassador Murphy, who accepted this supposedly secret information without informing the Germans of the offence. Spiegel Magazine headlines the articles on the Wikileaks and spy scandal disclosures “Time for Apologies”. For Germans the whole miserable story reminds them all too easily of the tale of Gunter Guillaume, right hand man of Prime Minister Willy Brandt, who was a spy for the DDR and ended Brandt’s rule. It’s certainly not quite the same, but it’s also not that different and it will bring an icy period in German-US relations unless the Obama government does some intelligent fence-mending, something they have not proven very good at up till now.
Whatever happened to nuclear power plants?
They haven’t been much in the headlines of late. The deadly explosion at Tschernobyl happened almost twenty-five years and the blame can easily be put on an antiquated design and negligent maintenance typical of the old Soviet Union. Nothing like that could happen in technically advanced western Europe or North America, could it. Or rather could it? There are countries in those areas that have waffled for so long about whether they can live with nuclear power on their territory that the very plants that they were waffling over have become ancient in nuclear power-plant time, and should be deactivated before they begin to seriously threaten the environment with shaky turbines and leaky pipes and containers. Instead as governments change and attitudes towards nuclear power change with the economic difficulties facing power-short lands anywhere, official positions change with regard to the fate of the old used-up plants. A country like France, which is very dependant on nuclear power plants, has of course a large number of engineers and designers who have had steady employment and lots of experience and know how to build them. But what about the nuclear plant planners in countries like Germany, the USA or Canada, which have not built any new plants for decades, and are now faced with the dilemma of returning to the largely unpopular idea of getting back in the nuclear race? With few experienced experts around to build new plants wouldn’t it make sense to refurbish the old ones.
For a lot of nuclear engineers the answer to that is a clear ‘no’. It is much cheaper, of course, to try to spiff up an old Volvo model than to design and build a new one. But the a “best before” date makes that way of saving money no longer either reasonable or safe with regard to nuclear power plants, and those engineers are hoping that the Swedish government figures that out before it is too late. For of all western countries it is rich Sweden that seems most willing to run the biggest risks by taking the cheap spiff-up solution to its nuclear dilemma. A couple of decades the Swedes voted to show their moral backbone by announcing that all Swedish nuclear power plants would be closed down within a couple of decades from then. Namely now. But governments change in democracies and that original stance by the Social Democrats in defence of safety and the environment has been reversed by the now-ruling conservatives, who maintain (probably with some justification) that Swedish industry cannot run without nuclear power. So thirty to forty-year-old nuclear power plants in Sweden some of which have already had dangerous breakdowns, but have never been decommissioned as they were supposed to have been years ago, are now supposed to be reused after modernization. (Canada has some similar plans.) For many nuclear engineers this is a recipe for disaster since these plants were never designed to be overhauled like this. Many think Sweden will be trying to put a Porsche engine into an old truck and that an accident is just waiting to happen. At least they haven’t yet asked Volvo to provide the engineers for this.
What happens next in poor Europe?
For the last couple of decades the best-selling author in the world has been a Swede who divides his time between southern Sweden and eastern Angola and writes stories of crimes that once seemed to exaggerate the violence that came with an increasing sense of continental dysfunction since the fall of the Soviet Union. The plots of Henning Mankell’s novels seemed to be exaggerated in their depiction of hatred and brutality beneath the surface of apparently stable societies, but recent events have made these plots seem more and more prophetic. Random acts of violence, which often centre on racial and religious clashes in what once were understood to be homogeneous societies, become more and more common and ever more threatening.
Mankell’s iconic police inspector, Kurt Wallander, seemed for a long time in the 1990s to be particularly unlucky in facing randomly vicious crimes, particularly as he was working out of one of the more apparently idyllic areas of a country that always shows up near the top of lists of successful societies. In the latest such rankings, Sweden was of course one of the Scandinavian countries topping the list, followed by Australia, New Zealand and Canada, and nevertheless Sweden is beginning to send out warning signs that even the most supposedly tolerant countries are drifting into areas of threatening intolerance. Almost inevitably these have something to do with problems between natives and immigrants. Somebody is randomly shooting people with dark skins in and around Malmö, Sweden’s third largest city and the home basis of the extreme right-wing party that won 20 seats in parliament in the recent election. As a result police have warned dark-skinned people to be careful after dark in Malmö. Similarly Chancellor Merkel’s extraordinary statement last month that German attempts at immigration have been a terrible failure made headlines everywhere. It is significant that the problems are seen to be most dramatic and threatening in countries where the unitiated would least expect them: The Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria, Germany, Switzerland, France, Hungary – all prosperous or relatively prosperous countries with histories of enlightened behaviour, aside from the odd war here and there. If this trend cannot be reversed, it may well spell the end of any dream of an even somewhat united Europe.
Sweden votes right – wrong
The federal election in Sweden on September 19 should have sent shock waves through the western world, and it did not go unnoticed as it would have if the Social Democrats had won the election, as they have gotten used to doing since the 1920s. It’s true there have been blips before in their winning streak, but the upset winners have then not lasted more than one term, and the world continues to think of Scandinavia and The Netherlands in general and Sweden in particular as the prime examples of tolerant societies with a strong social net that is designed to make the playing field level for all citizens.
But this time something happened which may in fact spell the end of the Social Democrats’ view of themselves as the naturally ruling party of Sweden after being in in power 83% of the time since 1932. This time the blip did not disappear, but rather rewarded a conservative party that has been ruling in coalition with a group of smaller moderately right parties since the last election by doubling its vote to 30%, with its coalition partners to 49%, thus winning 172 of the 349 seats, just short of a majority. This conservative coalition will thus once again form the government, while the Social Democrats dropped 4 percentage points to only 31%. On its own this is big news, as it may signal the end of socialist power in apparently prosperous northern European societies. However it is not not shocking news.
The shock comes from the 5.7% of the vote, and 20 seats, won by the ultra-far right Sweden Democrats party, running on an anti-immigrant platform that many consider to be Neo-Nazi, and featuring an ad in the final weeks before the vote that showed 3 young women, easily identified as Moslems by their clothes, shoving aside an older woman, easily identifiable as Swedish, as they bully their way to a welfare-benefit counter. This ad would be illegal and unshowable on German or Canadian television, but in Sweden it helped make the “Sweden for Swedes” party the potential kingmaker of the next government as the conservative coalition cannot form a majority without the help of some other party. And it looks like none of the leftist parties will consider being part of it. Anyone interested in looking at the vote results in German elections in the 1920s is welcome to do so.