Politics and Press

The interaction of the press and politics; public diplomacy, and daily absurdities.

Merkel

Social Democrats in all of Germany.

By

For those of us who were in the Bavarian capital when the election was held, this is an extraordinary conclusion to a very divisive election, in which the Social Democratic, a historically monumental party, received its lowest percentage of votes in history, as did the conservative parties, though they received the most votes by a significant margin. But they were nowhere near the possibility of becoming a majority government and a very difficult attempt at coalition ensued.. In the process the Liberal party opted out at of talks at a crucial moment, and many think the result will be that it will disappear, the Social Democrats announced with a great flourish that under no circumstance would they again be part of a government with Angela Merkel as prime minister ( truly an odd development since it is not so long ago that a Social Democratic leader that would invite into Germany a million refugees ( a few more than that came), and that the conservatives would then have a field day in the next election, and the the opposite happened. In the end the Social Democrats didn’t seem to know if they were for or against Merkel’s extraordinary policy on refugees. At that point it became clear that if nothing dramatic happened, the Germans would have to have another election, and memories of Weimar and the rise of the Nazis. And (almost) nobody wanted that. So the Social Democrats heed and hawed and finally concluded that they would resume talks for the good of the country, an their leader eventually announced that he had reconsidered and the coalition could be formed but only if he became the Foreign Minister. This so enraged the young socialists that he was sent out to the boondocks, where he remains, and the party announced they could form a coalition if the party members (more than 400,000 folks) agreed to it in a referendum. There was a split opinion among constitutional experts about whether that was legal but the referendum went ahead and the results arrived yesterday: the coalition was approve by 66% of the members. And if you wanted to see a muted celebration at a party headquarters that their party would once again be part of the government, this was the one to tape for future reference. It was much more like a wake and not of the Irish kind. If you look soberly at the results you can see why. There were only losers to be found rolling around on about the battlefield, with one exception. Angela Merkel had to make some sacrifices which no doubt disturbed her deeply But one non-change item trumps the all. She will once again be Prime Minister for another several years, and we all look soberly at the rogues now in charge in so many countries, in many of which this is a complete surprise, the Macron-Merkel duo in charge at the centre of Europe is as welcome as a sunny day in a seemingly endless winter.

After 160 days, the outcome of the October election in Germany has finally been reached. It will be yet another Grand Coalition between the Conservative parties in Bavaria and the rest of Germany and the Social Democrats in all of Germany. For those of us who were in the Bavarian capital when the election was held, this is an extraordinary conclusion to a very divisive election, in which the Social Democratic, a historically monumental party, received its lowest percentage of votes in history, as did the conservative parties, though they received the most votes by a significant margin. But they were nowhere near the possibility of becoming a majority government and a very difficult attempt at coalition ensued..
In the process the Liberal party opted out at of talks at a crucial moment, and many think the result will be that it will disappear, the Social Democrats announced with a great flourish that under no circumstance would they again be part of a government with Angela Merkel as prime minister ( truly an odd development since it is not so long ago that a Social Democratic leader that would invite into Germany a million refugees ( a few more than that came), and that the conservatives would then have a field day in the next election, and the the opposite happened. In the end the Social Democrats didn’t seem to know if they were for or against Merkel’s extraordinary policy on refugees. At that point it became clear that if nothing dramatic happened, the Germans would have to have another election, and memories of Weimar and the rise of the Nazis. And (almost) nobody wanted that.
So the Social Democrats heed and hawed and finally concluded that they would resume talks for the good of the country, an their leader eventually announced that he had reconsidered and the coalition could be formed but only if he became the Foreign Minister. This so enraged the young socialists that he was sent out to the boondocks, where he remains, and the party announced they could form a coalition if the party members (more than 400,000 folks) agreed to it in a referendum. There was a split opinion among constitutional experts about whether that was legal but the referendum went ahead and the results arrived yesterday: the coalition was approve by 66% of the members. And if you wanted to see a muted celebration at a party headquarters that their party would once again be part of the government, this was the one to tape for future reference. It was much more like a wake and not of the Irish kind. If you look soberly at the results you can see why. There were only losers to be found rolling around on  the battlefield, with one exception. Angela Merkel had to make some sacrifices which no doubt disturbed her deeply But one non-change item trumps the all. She will once again be Prime Minister for another several years, and we all look soberly at the rogues now in charge in so many countries, in many of which this is a complete surprise, the Macron-Merkel duo in charge at the centre of Europe is as welcome as a sunny day in a seemingly endless winter.

Merkel, Clinton and Trump

By

On October 9, 2008 the day of the second US presidential (so-called) debate in Missouri, Angela Merkel was in Mali, making the very difficult trip to a country torn in half by east/west political and religious disputes that have turned it into a battleground for a brutal civil war. It is clearly one of the most dangerous parts of Africa or for that matter anywhere, and it is widely expected that Canada will soon send special forces troops to join the French contingent there in attempting to help restore order to a battered land, once better known for its splendid music.  And that seems to be the only reason that Kanzlerin Merkel was also there.

It was exactly sixteen years earlier to the day that Angela Merkel  became the Kanzlerin of the recently reunited Federal Republic of Germany. The daughter of a Lutheran pastor in the old East German Peoples Republic, she was relatively young and not very experienced at  50, and it’s  fair to say, in retrospect, that no-one imagined at the time  that she was potentially  a long-term Powerfrau in the tricky world of German politics, and that within a decade she would enjoy a reputation  as  the most powerful and respected government leader  anywhere nor that  she would soon become the most honoured politician in the world.  But in the sixteen years during which she became the longest-ruling leader on a floundering continent where, after a catastrophic war that had ended little more than a half-century before her inauguration,  Germany has under her leadership become the uncontested economic and arguably even moral centre of Europe.
And yet there she was on a day when she could have enjoyed a bright spotlight in Berlin, offering help to a country in great need of it, far from home and very far from a place that could bring her political gains.  At home in this last year she has made decisions declaring  Germany’s willingness to accept  virtually all refugees (almost a million at this point) from a  terrible war zone, and that has cost her some popularity.  But she still says “Wir schaffen es” (“We’ll make it work”) and  she still enjoys the support of more than 50% of the German population.  Most experts believe her party will win the upcoming German election if she decides to run again.

Hard to imagine that on that same day, the two candidates running for Head of State of the United States, still the most powerful military presence in the world, could put on such an embarrassing and demeaning piece of sordid entertainment as the so-called debate.  One can forgive the female candidate, Hillary Clinton, for gradually starting  to look like a smiling robot, since that must have been  because the overwhelming thuggery of her opponent Mr. Trump, often lurking threateningly just behind her,  was something she could not have been prepared for.  But what does it say about the political system that allowed such a spectacle to take place after it slowly simmered into a boil in the course of more than a year?  My advice for Mme Clinton is to take a break after she wins (which she will) and go over to Berlin and have a long talk with  the woman who  has walked the walk rather than just talk the talk.

The Powerful and Complicated Angela Merkel

By

Angela Merkel, one of the world’s most powerful women, appears on the surface to have a dual personality. On the one hand she has dealt a very tough hand to Greece through the German-led austerity program, a program that has not led to improvement in Greece’s economic situation while harming the Greek people immeasurably. On the other hand she has been the strongest voice in Europe for a compassionate, human rights program to assist refugees from the Middle East conflicts. While the Greek austerity program is politically popular in Germany, her proposed refugee program has mixed support among German voters, especially mixed among those in the former East Germany. And while she has had to back off from her initial willingness to accept signifiant numbers of refugees, she is apparently sticking to the basic effort to address the issue, and pulling the rest of the EU along with her.

While forced Greek austerity and welcoming refugees seem to come from very different places, it can be argued that they are both viewed by many in Germany as being in the country’s national interests. But it is perhaps better to view them in terms of her domestic political interests. There is a strong impulse among Germans to punish the Greeks for their past sins of profligacy as well as a view that hard working Germans should not be paying to bail out Greece. The refugees present a human rights issue that many Germans view as an opportunity to do the right thing, while also satisfying Germany’s need for workers in the face of the country’s falling birthrate. But as the numbers of refugees heading to Germany increases beyond original expectations Merkel is now risking a loss in her domestic political support. But having criticized her for her austerity policy it seems fair to give her credit for taking on the refugee issue in a humane and positive way, despite growing domestic uneasiness.

In addition to these major challenges Merkel is now faced with the the unpleasant story of Volkswagen’s deceit in hiding the true polluting effects of its diesel engines. The thought of Germany’s largest and most successful corporation knowingly poisoning the air people breath and hiding the fact of it has an especially ugly resonance and just might force Germans to look in their mirrors before forcing Greeks to continue to accept the destruction of their economy. While this introduces another tough issue for Merkel, I would not bet against her. Her political skills and instincts are simply too impressive to ignore.

Merkel, Schaeuble and the Beginning of the End of a United Europe

By

So, the Eurozone and the Greeks have dodged a bullet…or have they? and should they have? Below is a slightly edited exchange between an American former expat retiree and his friend who has lived in Europe for over twenty years. The former (A) lived in Munich and Prague for ten years; the latter (B) an American lawyer/businessman who has lived and worked in Europe for over twenty years.

A: What are your thoughts on Merkel and her Finance Monster – ur – Minister?

B: Repulsion. Same as for Greek governments of all denominations. Lying #### the lot of them. . Plague on German Volk and Greek governments. Tyrants and enslavers. There are no tyrants but that there are slaves. Politicians (particularly Greek ones) are slaves to the indulgence of their own power and so sell their people into slavery to keep their personal indulgence. And Hollande, …. He is a nothing. He was fighting Merkel just so as to keep France punching far above its weight for another few years.

In my opinion Greece should vote itself out of the Euro and the currency would soar (to my benefit admittedly). That not good for Angela. Good for Greek people who could get on with their lazy ways and devalue their currency whenever it was convenient for them. Good for principles. Good precedent for Portuguese, Spanish and probably Irish people. Bad for their incumbent governments.

If the people do not want an EU then there should not be one. If they want one they should have fiscal and political union and give up nation states except during the World Cup. That is the point my favorite economist misses. Wolfgang Munchau (Financial Times) is usually better but I think he has never known a non=integrated Europe and often forgets that indeed it is a utility for the benefit of people. Mostly of little people. :

A: Most of what I have read leading up to last night’s “negotiations” started with the premise that the Euro without political unity of some sort was doomed to struggle if not fail. Pickety, Stiglitz and Krugman, and many other professional economists have suggested that the best answer for Greece is to leave the Eurozone and work out their troubles with a new Drachma. In fact as Munchau says, it might be good also for other countries. (i.e. Ireland, Portugal, Spain) I have felt that Germany had simply found a new way to dominate the rest of Europe for its own parochial benefit, this time in a less obviously malign way. And sure, the Greeks have been led by crooks for years and many Greeks don’t work as hard as they might….and of course not as hard as the Germans claim to work. But austerity is a self indulgent exercise designed by Schaeuble, implemented by Merkel for the self interest of Germany, and the rest of Europe ends up participating in their own damage. As for the Greeks sleeping in the street waiting for the ATM s to,open and picking through garbage, they are simply collateral damage.

It is especially galling for me to see Merkelmania produce a heroine out of a local politician playing to her Calvinist voters while humiliating a fellow European country and forcing that country to accept absurd, counter-productive austerity programs designed to impoverish itself so it can accept so-called bail out money, which they then give to German banks. Ergo, a perfect ploy by the Germans, who then applaud themselves for their moral stance. This is not going to end well.