Politics and Press

The interaction of the press and politics; public diplomacy, and daily absurdities.

U.S. Foreign Policy

Does the U.S. Even Have a Learning Curve?

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In 1961, American intelligence (sic) determined that they could send some troops of unhappy Cuban immigrants onto the beaches of Cuba and defeat Fidel Castro’s revolution. Scotty Reston, Washington Editor of The NY Times knew the Bay of Pigs was imminent and held the story back for reasons of “national interest”. I watched him defend that decision some years later on PBS while his Times’ colleague Tom Wicker looked across the desk and said that if he had the story he should have reported it. Period. Turns out that then President Kennedy later agreed, having been led down the primrose path by the CIA.

In 1964 the President of the United States announced to the world that an American naval ship had been attacked by North Vietnamese ships in the Gulf of Tonkin. It led to Congress giving the President the power to send American troops in great numbers to fight in a War that killed over 50,000 of them not to mention the million + Vietnamese killed. It was, as it turned out, a lie. The attack never happened and the Defense Department worked with President Johnson to provide the political rationale for our entry to what was a stupid, mindless war, and of course finally simply tragic. The American press pretty much accepted the government’s story and did absolutely no due diligence – unless you were reading the Nation, or similar serious but small publications. Until the Pentagon papers were finally released surreptitiously by The NY Times and Washington Post.

In 2003 the President of the United States announced to the world that America was at risk of an attack with weapons of mass destruction from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. The country was upset and confused after the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center so the time was ripe for another war to get started with support from a supine press and a thoughtless American populace. It too worked – in we went and some thousands of American deaths and millions of Iraqi deaths later we were left with an ongoing horror show of our own making. While it may be unfair to pick on The NY Times, their coverage was a disaster with Judith Miller leading the way. Our current National Security Advisor John Bolton was a huge fan of that adventure.

The United States has a history of using the press to present its case and the press has a history of being so used. It is important to remember this as we are told that Iran is making trouble that could lead to a war that would make the Iraq fiasco look like a Disney light comedy. The press must be held to a high standard of factual reporting and we cannot and should not just automatically believe everything the government tells us – especially a government led by a lie-addicted president. And we might also want to calibrate cost benefit. In Vietnam we lost 50000+ American lives and the return on that investment was some good Bahn Mi sandwich shops in America. In Iraq the cost was about 4000 American lives and a national recession that ruined millions of families’ finances. The return on that investment was – well we actually don’t have a return yet. As for the Bay of Pigs? Some of the consequences of that are hidden beneath the Warren Commission but include an assassinated President, an increased cost of rum, a new radio station out of Miami, Radio Marti, and a lively Cuban American scene in Miami.

President Trump started this latest crisis by walking away from a treaty that denuclearized Iran. He walked away because his predecessor, Obama, did the treaty. There is no other rational reason. So we broke a treaty we had signed and now the Iranians are saying they will stop adhering to their part of it and why should they? So of course now having destroyed the agreement we are saying that how dare they go back to building nuclear capability. I mean – hello – anyone in there? Are we all to be so stupid? And where is the press? Much of it is pandering to Trump’s tale that Iran is breaking the treaty that we already broke. Cannot make this stuff up – country is nuts if we let our government get away with it and start a crazy war with Iran. We are 17 years in Afghanistan, 15 years in Iraq, have already given up in Syria, are in Yemen by proxy and losing. When will we ever learn?

We don’t know what the costs of an Iran adventure would be but I suggest we give Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton uniforms and send them in first. And how about Cadet Bonespur? Then our cost would be minimal and even maybe a benefit.

Love in the Age of Dystopia

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The love affair of Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu evolved quickly from light petting. Were there a wedding the exchange of gifts would have included Trump’s recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Netanyahu’s naming an illegal Jewish settlement in honor of Trump. It will amuse future geographers to note that Trump’s name is on the map of the Middle East especially when reflecting on Trump arriving in Israel from Saudi Arabia and announcing, “I have just arrived from the Middle East”.

Netanyahu, who was being investigated for fraud, may actually owe his re-election to Trump as billboards featuring the lovers went up in Israel during Netanyahu’s campaign, after Trump announced moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and then – just prior to the Israeli election – announced the U.S.’s recognition of Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

Trump’s actions have virtually eliminated any chance of a Middle East settlement that could be remotely acceptable to the Palestinians and waiting for a peace plan from Jared Kushner is, of course, a fool’s errand. The prize for Trump is not just a place on the Middle East map, but also huge political donations from far-right supporters of Israel like shady casino owner Sheldon Adelson, and shared friendships with a variety of international thugs like Viktor Orban in Hungary, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and the ubiquitous Vladimir Putin.

The remaining question is just what to call the illegal settlement honoring Trump. I’m thinking “Grifterville”.

Richard Lugar, RIP

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Former Senator Richard Lugar (R – Indiana) died yesterday at the age of 87. Lugar served six terms in the U.S. Senate and was one of the last breed of respectable Republican conservatism that for many years provided honest leadership in foreign affairs while promoting what is now an old-fashioned kind of conservatism on domestic issues. While his views on domestic politics were far from progressive they never morphed into the kind of weirdness which we now see from most Republican Senators.

But Lugar’s major interests and impact were in the international field, highlighted by his efforts towards nuclear disarmament and his commitment to ensuring bipartisanship in foreign relations. That this did not always gain the support of his more doctrinaire Republican colleagues led to Jesse Helms forcing him off the Foreign Relations Committee because he was an “internationalist”. Who knew that Helms could be ironic?

One important event illustrates Lugar’s fact-based approach to foreign affairs as well as his political courage and ability to speak truth to power. Ferdinand Marcos served as president of the Philippines from 1965 to 1986. Marcos and his family stole billions during those years and he became increasingly ruthless in maintaining his power. Marcos  was finally defeated in an election in 1986 and proceeded to attempt to steal the election. Lugar was in the Philippines as an election observer working with U.S. Ambassador Stephen Bosworth. When President Reagan began to waver in his support for the election results, it was Lugar who made the phone call to Reagan that led to his finally supporting the election results and sending Marcos into a too-long delayed retirement.

Lugar got defeated by a Tea Party candidate in 2012 and replaced with a mediocrity. That was one of many signals that the Republican Party was being taken over by dopes and fools. Donald Trump is the conclusion to that movement.

Bully Trump Meets Speaker Pelosi

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”It’s like a manhood thing for him,. As if manhood could be associated with him. This wall thing.” Nancy Pelosi

We have gotten used to Arrested Development Teen Trump calling people silly names, claiming sexual rights without permission, bullying Republican wimps, and bragging about things that never happened. But today is a new day with the soon to be Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, setting the table for a future of the House of Representatives pushing back – at long last. Two years of a Republican Congress putting up with the most degrading presidency in my history is moving to an and Trump is not going to get his wall- boo Hoo, Boo Hoo.

Trump’s “art of the deal” has always been one of bullying people, not paying people, lying to people, and just claiming bankruptcy every time things went south for him. Well, here we are and it is now time for him to go to Mexico and get there money for his ridiculous wall or shut up. Instead he is promising to shut down the U.S. government, an act of political craziness, economic risk and – alas – a certain level of black humor.

Today’s meeting of Trump, Schumer and Pelosi (VP Pence was there in body only) was political theater bound to garner some cheeers in the beer halls of Trump’s useful idiots, but things are closing in on him and he is losing what little he ever had. Watch the video linked from the front page of the Washington Post – it is priceless.

Trump Threatens N. Korea with “Fire and Fury”

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“North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” ,President Trump

Several years ago (December 2010) this blog had a piece on the challenge of dealing with North Korea; today’s comments by Trump are evidence that little has changed.

Understanding North Korea’s behavior should not be that tough in the context of America’s historical interventions in countries around the world, frequently predicated on a hypocritical desire for regime change in countries identified as “undemocratic”. When Iran democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh Prime Minister of Iran in 1951 we engineered his overthrow in 1953, installed the Shah and returned oil production to British Petroleum. In Chile we engineered the overthrow of democratically elected President Allende on 9/11 1973; he subsequently committed suicide. During Reagan’s presidency the US sold weapons to Iran so money could be passed on to the Nicaraguan contras to facilitate the overthrow of the Sandinista government. George W. Bush’s administration identified an “Axis of Evil” consisting of N. Korea, Iraq and Iran. It invaded Iraq, killed its leader, left the country in ruins and helped create ISIS. The US led NATO against Libya’s Colonel Gaddafi with an invasion of Libya, killed Gadaffi and left the country in ruins as another base for ISIS. The list of countries the US has messed around in includes Syria, earlier ventures in support of Saddam in Iraq against the Kurds and Iran, and of course Vietnam and Cambodia, Indonesia, Grenada, Lebanon, etc. The leaders of North Korea are not stupid or irrational. They have seen what we do and know that if the US is interested in regime change, a beefed up military is a good idea. And what better beefed up military than one with nuclear arms? We are – as a country – complicit in creating our own international problems.

Trump talks the talk but has never walked the walk and we can only hope he doesn’t start now with North Korea. The lack of realistic military options, the dismal history of diplomacy and the failure of both the United States and North Korea to honor previous agreements are not reasons for hope.

Bilateral, direct negotiations between the U.S. And N. Korea have been elusive, largely because U.S neocons argue that direct negotiations would be viewed as “rewarding” N. Korea for its bad behavior. This is not a nuanced understanding of adult human behavior. While there have been the occasional suggestions of possible direct negotiations (most recently by Secretary of State Tillerson) they have always been contingent on North Korea giving something up before the US can sit with them, like a poker player demanding that everyone show him their cards before he decides to bet. This has not and will not work.

The current gambit is to suggest that China solve the problem by joining in strong international sanctions and refusing economic activity with N. Korea. Successful sanctions would likely lead to a flood of Korean refugees into China which is not acceptable to China; in addition, the slim possibility of a unified Korea would produce a different kind of threat to China. Basically, China has its own interests and they are different from ours and Trump can’t tweet himself out of that reality.

For decades Americans have been presented a picture of the N. Korean leadership as semi-deranged but they behave in their own interest not ours and are not all that different from American leadership. President Trump’s childish playground rants are not all that different from Kim Jong-un’s and just about as helpful. The N. Koreans are committed to maintaining their regime; if we act militarily to dislodge them thousands of South Koreans will die along with some number of American military stationed in S. Korea.

Whatever window of opportunity existed for a diplomatic agreement to limit N. Korean nuclear development seems likely closed. So in a nuclear world we have Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump screaming threats at each other. This is likely not to end well for anyone, including and especially our Asian allies, unless wiser and cooler heads are able to influence the future while recognizing the limits of American power and the consequences of its misuse.

It might mean a future based on fear of mutual destruction as in the good old US-Soviet Cold War days of containment and threat of mutual destruction.

Come on Yanks, give him the boot before it’s too late

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Okay guys, you’ve made a mistake and proven that democracy doesn’t always work. But now the proof is in the pudding and the profiteer of that foreseeable mistake, who did not even come close to winning the popular vote, has become a global farce. Isn’t there something you can do to return the USA to its designated position as the leading world power and a moral force, instead of the fantasies of a rogue farce, before the damage becomes very difficult to undo?
The US government of the moment may have already proclaimed itself to be an outsider, a non-member of the committee to act responsibly on the future of the planet. All countries, save three – Syria, Nicaragua, who thought the Paris accord didn’t go far enough, and the USA – belong to this world assembly. Russia just signed on. But don’t you have some sort of fail-safe system in place in your constitution to get the US back on the rails of common-sense, following an obviously awful political decision, before it’s too late? Please keep all us outsiders in the picture on this topic, before you sail into the obscurity reserved by history for once- revered empires, that have opted out of unified attempts to deal with a planet’s potentially lethal problems. At the same you are allowing the vacuum of power, caused by your government’s blinkers, to be filled by China, of all nations. Who would have thunk it possible even two years ago.

Trump and Erdogan: A Conspiracy of Bullies?

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Later this week President Donald Trump will meet with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in what could be an opportunity to examine policy differences in the two countries. But given Trump’s need for positive feedback means there is some likelihood for it to turn into a celebration of phony mutual respect.

Erdogan will no doubt question Trump about the U.S. decision to provide arms support to America’s Kurdish allies in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Erdogan has clearly vocalized his displeasure, given Turkey’s long standing view that all Kurds are terrorists, based on a series of deadly bombings in Turkey by a radical Kurdish group within Turkey. This is a complicated issue but one in which each country’s view of its national interest inevitably lead to differences, which in this instance is complicated by Turkey’s important role in NATO.

An issue that resonates in the U.S. is Erdogan’s predilection for throwing anyone who disagrees with him into jail. This has included a large part of Turkey’s nominally free press, teachers, academics, judges, military officers, totaling an estimated 50,000 individuals. In addition over 120,000 public servants have been summarily fired. The fact that Trump’s DNA seems to harbor a deep authoritarian streak makes it likely that this will go unmentioned in their meeting- in fact Trump must be envious of Erdogan’s unrestrained power to imprison the press rather than merely crying “fake news” with every negative news report. In any case Erdogan’s disastrous human rights record in recent years offers an opportunity for Trump to take the high road – an unfamiliar route for him and one he is likely to avoid.

Erdogan also brings with him an historic hatred of a fellow Turk, Fehtullah Gulen, who is in self exile in Pennsylvania and who is, according to Erdogan, responsible for virtually everything that goes wrong in Turkey. Erdogan’s anger boiled over last summer after an attempted coup in Turkey for which Erdogan blamed Gulen. The Obama administration resisted Turkey’s calls for extradition of Gulen but the issue is likely to come up in this week’s meeting and Trump could choose to change that policy.

It is important to know that Trump’s erstwhile, very temporary, National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, served as a paid advisor to the Turkish government last fall while advising Trump. Flynn met with Turkish officials and former CIA Director James Woolsey in September to discuss Gulen’s possible extradition. According to Woolsey in a Wall Street Journal piece, the Turkish Ministers in attendance (incl Erdogan’s son-in-law) suggested a clandestine operation that would amount to kidnapping Gulen and taking him back to Turkey. Woolsey reported that he reminded Flynn and the Turks that this was illegal and then had his staff inform Vice President Biden of the meeting. It is impossible to know what Trump knows about this incident but it is easy to remember that Flynn was a major advisor to his campaign, was considered as a running mate and that Trump left him in the position of National Security Advisor for over two weeks after Acting Attorney General Sally Yates informed him of Flynn’s work with the Russians.

It seems likely that Trump will be told by staff to be careful dealing with Erdogan but Trump and Erdogan are in too many ways birds of a feather. Each desires authoritarian power, loathes the free press, questions the role of the courts and has a tenuous connection to the truth. If their meeting follows the pattern of past Trump meetings with foreign leaders, he will have made a tremendous new friend, they will share very great plans for the future and back in Pennsylvania, Fehtullah Gulen will be looking for a high powered immigration lawyer. Stay tuned.

Don’t blame Trump – He’s just doing what he said he would, and he’s doing it with the class you expected

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Now let’s wait a second.  All  of the decisions of Donald Trump in the last two weeks that are now being met with anger and derision by hundreds of thousands of marchers in the USA, many of whom didn’t feel like voting,  were long public  and cannot be a surprise.  These proposals  were thumped home in raucous fashion by the new President all across the country for months before the election.  There is certainly good reason to  be outraged by them, and  that is at least also partly because of the brutality and the amateurishness in which they have now been delivered.  The apparently spontaneous and unorganized travel restrictions placed on Moslems of seven countries that  the president doesn’t like, and the way it was announced and commented upon by a neanderthalean Press Secretary may be beyond any pale.  And the treatment of the President of neighbour Mexico also takes some kind of cake for arrogant boorishness and non-neighbourliness.  But the actual contents were  made clear long ago.

So didn’t anybody vote  for that programme?  Well, yes,  it turns out somewhere around 60 million Americans did vote for that, even if you don’t know any of them.  That’s a lot of Yanks who are not protesting.  That’s democracy for you and as the greatest troubadour of our times, Leonard Cohen, now safely buried on the peaceful north side of the border, wrote and sang not so long ago – “Democracy is coming  to theUSA”.  So get used to it and now get your act together and make sure it can”t happen again in four years time.

 

 

Competing in the Information War

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“The speed of communications is wondrous to behold. It is also true that speed can multiply the distribution of information that we know to be untrue.”
― Edward R. Murrow

In March of 2014 this blog published a lengthy post about Russia’s growing and America’s shrinking public diplomacy efforts, specifically international broadcasting. So here we are now with a population beginning a flirtation with Russia and its president – a man with an easy solution to his troublesome media – jail them, kill them, or both. Some of this new American infatuation with Russia and Putin is certainly due to the full force gale of Trump and his Breitbart accomplices, but there is considerable evidence that Russia Today TV has made successful inroads throughout the West. It has done this with a well supported, worldwide broadcasting effort with enough real news to gain a degree of credibility while slipping in the news that is not real when it suits them.

On a recent trip to Italy we had access to three government supported English language TV stations: BBC occasionally, Russia Today regularly throughout the day and an English language station operated by China. CNN International – a private organization of mixed quality – was also available. On a trip to Germany a few years ago we had access to CNN which was having a Wolf Blitzer extravaganza about the balloon boy and Al Jazeera English which was by far the better of the two.

International broadcasting, as a part of public diplomacy is cheap, has in the past been effective, and can reach millions of people – as the Russian program does. But in the great competition for American taxpayers’ money, U.S. armament companies win, with the help of job hungry Congresspeople. So we are spending over $500 billion on defense, including billions on costly and frequently failed weapons systems and can barely squeeze out $750M for international broadcasting. To put it in a different perspective, Russia, with a broken economy, currently spends in excess of $1.4B on international broadcasting, the U.S.spends ca. $750M. China spends an estimated $7B.

Looking to the future, the Congress recently provided a clue by passing the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act that includes an amendment that would “permanently establish the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) position as head of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG), the federal agency that oversees all U.S.-funded non-military international broadcasting, while removing the nine-member bipartisan Board that currently heads the agency.” The philosophy behind the historic role of the Board has been that it serve as a firewall between broadcasters charged with providing honest, fact-based reporting and the ideological whims of politicians. It served the interests of the country through the years of the House Un-American Activities Committee, the presidencies of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, both George Bushes, and Barack Obama.

Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty and the Voice of America made major contributions to ending the Cold War by providing honest journalism to countries behind the iron Curtain, but any lesson from this seems lost. The likely emasculation of the Broadcasting Board of Governors indicates that it will likely not survive the presidency of Donald Trump who may instead finally get his very own TV and Radio Networks to do with as he wishes. Under the new law the CEO who will take over the responsibilities formerly belonging to the bipartisan Board will be appointed by the President. What could possibly go wrong? Well, how about Breitbart News’ Stephen Bannon for CEO?

The World According to Trump

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If the President elect of the U.S. has a world view it is a mystery. Similarly, if he has a strategic foreign policy strategy for the U.S. it too is a mystery. But there are clues that lead to thoughts of possible threats to world stability and, by extension, to American security.

Trump’s recent break from U.S.-China policy by accepting a call from the President of Taiwan was initially presented by much of the press as a faux pas. It was subsequently presented by the Trump camp as a clever, thought-out strategy to put pressure on China to bend to the will of the President elect. This theory is as realistic as his plan to have Mexico pay for America’s Great Wall. U.S. policy toward China was transformed in the Nixon years and clearly both countries have benefited from what was seen then as a seismic shift. Trump risks changing the nature of the relationship at a time when the U.S. has been focusing on developing stronger economic ties throughout Asia – the continent with the fastest growing economy.

During his campaign, Trump provided his view that NATO had become a too costly commitment for the U.S. and one that was unnecessarily confrontational to Russia. He has threatened to weaken America’s commitment to the NATO treaty that has served American and European vital interests for over 50 years, unless the European members step up their financial stake in NATO. While there may be a reasonable argument that Europe has not shouldered its share of the costs, (arguably true for some countries, not so for others) reducing America’s commitment to NATO would give a message to Russia that an invasion of the Baltic states could be a risk worth taking. As it did when invading Eastern Ukraine, Russia could argue that they are assisting ethnic Russians gain their freedom. It is curious that Turkey’s President Erdogan is the one NATO leader that Trump has reached out to with praise. He is the one NATO leader who is turning his country into a near dictatorship, with thousands summarily jailed, including hundreds of journalists who have been critical of him.

Trump has been highly critical of the Iran nuclear deal which has been supported by the members of the UN Security Council (incl. Russia and China), as well as America’s European allies. In criticizing the agreement Trump joins Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, several Republican Senators, right wing ideologues like John Bolton, and several major funders of GOP candidates, notably casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. While Trump has said he would walk away from the deal it is easier said than done, since our European allies and other treaty signatories would refuse to follow suit and American economic interests would likely suffer as other countries’ businesses take advantage of the U.S. reneging on the deal.

Trump has reached out with praise to the new President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, who has become a human rights nightmare as he exhorts his countrymen to summarily execute anyone in the country suspected of being involved in drugs. This has led to thousands of killings – many simply murders – with no reference to a system of justice. In this case Trump is making a mockery of the U.S.’s historic commitment to human rights and systems of law. His behavior shrinks our stance in the world and begins to provide a nasty model for the application of quasi fascist behavior. See this NY Times piece for a taste of Duterte’s world:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/07/world/asia/rodrigo-duterte-philippines-drugs-killings.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&module=RelatedCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article

Trump has not said much about Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East in general other than to criticize Obama for failing in everything he has done in that part of the world and claiming that he will defeat ISIS almost as soon as he is in office. The decisions his administration make in that region will affect millions long into the future and we are largely left to guess as to what he would actually do.

Trump has made it clear that he believes he has a special relationship with Russian President Putin and indeed he may. They share a capacity for bullying, a disregard for human rights, a sensitivity to criticism, a willingness to harass the press (in Putin’s case including murder and imprisonment) and an attraction to kleptocracy. He does not seem to worry about what Putin has done in the world – e.g. Syria, Ukraine, Georgia, Chechnya, etc. – and has been eager and able to participate in the Russian economy, an economy that could teach Wall Street a thing or two about cronyism.

There is currently much talk of giving Trump a chance before judging him. Since he was elected we have no choice but to give him his chance, but judging can begin anon. Look at his appointments, listen to his words, read his tweets and form a judgment. If he fools us and turns out to be realistic, thoughtful and intelligent then we can adapt our judgment. Looking at his appointments to date, his short list for Secretary of State, and his statements during and after the campaign, it seems unlikely we will find that necessary.